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How much gold needed to get gold heroes ? [Copy this link to quote]

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Post time 19-3-2012 20:59:00 |Show all posts
Since the system is doing a version update, I have decided to write my first guide here on how much gold needed to get gold heroes.

First gold hero. 1% chance for every 1 gold used at the tavern.
Second gold hero. 1% chance for every additional 2 gold used at the tavern.
Third gold hero. 1% chance for every additional 4 gold used at the tavern.
Fourth gold hero. 1% chance for every additional 8 gold used at the tavern.
Fifth gold hero. 1% chance for every additional 16 gold used at the tavern.
Sixth gold hero. 1% chance for every additional 32 gold used at the tavern.
7th onwards. 1% chance for every additional 64 gold used at the tavern.
Gold heroes are GUARANTEED before reaching the next tier.

Worst case if I want to get ONE gold hero = 299 gold. (100+200) minus 1
Worst case if I want to get SECOND gold hero = 699 gold (100+200+400) minus 1

Best case if I want to get ONE gold hero = 1 gold.
Best case if I want to get SECOND gold hero = 101 gold. (100+1)

That is why there are always opinions on why is my first gold hero so expensive and yours is so much cheaper ? Well , don't worry, theirs will eventually become more expensive and yours will become cheaper in the long run because of the averaging of gold spent at tavern.

7th gold hero is ALWAYS the most expensive because on average 12700 gold must be spent. Some will say their 8th onwards are cheaper. The did not consider the fact that they have paid more for earlier gold heroes.

Better chance to get a gold hero with better titles ? A myth. Because after spending thousands of gold on titles, spending gold to get the first few heroes become psychologically cheaper.

Guaranteed gold at GALA ? I think it will only work till 3rd gala which is 3 gold heroes. 3 galas = 1500 gold spend. Minimum to get 3 gold heroes is 1500.

Stacking up to 30 toast to get a better chance to get silver heroes ? Another myth, because I have tested with stacking 30 toast + 12 Recruit Notices. (Total 90 toast = 3 bronze heroes)

The chances to get a better bronze hero such as Zuo Ci or silver hero such as Jiang Wei or Ma Dai is when u have NOT visited the tavern for a few days. Because I was once away for almost a week, and when I came back, Zuo Ci visited my tavern. I did get a slightly better scroll too at the mystery shop. Seems like there is a cooldown here on tavern usage.

-To be continued- opinions welcomed.

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Post time 20-3-2012 10:00:22 |Show all posts
Hmm, I don't quite get it.

Say I've spent 0 gold so far. If I click the 1 gold button in tavern, I have a 1% chance to get a gold hero.

Now say I don't get one. Then click the 1 gold button again. Do I have a 2% chance of getting a gold hero with that click?  If so, say I've clicked it 99 times and haven't gotten a gold hero. Next click will I have a 100% chance of getting a gold hero?

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Rank: 3Rank: 3

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Post time 20-3-2012 16:07:34 |Show all posts
mean u confirm will get a GH when u reach the gold needed. no matter what method u are using. so don skip any GH

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Post time 20-3-2012 20:47:50 |Show all posts
Alexandra replied at 21-3-2012 01:00
Hmm, I don't quite get it.

Say I've spent 0 gold so far. If I click the 1 gold button in tavern, I ...

this does not apply to only GH but to any legendary hero, usually once you find any legendary hero -bronze,silver,gold- it usually resets. tho i do not know this method of CJR is accurate or not.

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Post time 22-3-2012 04:29:37 |Show all posts
you've forgotten the number one rule of statics

Statistics have no memory!

Meaning that no matter how many times you attempt to get a gold hero, your chances stay the same. If you had a 1% chance than didn't get it, you don't now have a 2% chance. you still have that 1% chance per click. Even if you clicked 99% times in a row and were unlucky enough to not get a gold, that next click does not have a 100% chance.  For any stat involving random chance best case scenario is getting it on your first time. if the drop rate was 1%, then you would expect 1 out of every 100 people to get lucky like this, but it is not guaranteed to happen. Worst case scenario will always be that your finding show that your worst drop chance is a fraction of 1/ (number approaching infinity), but will never reach infinity.  Only Koram knows the exact variables and percentage chance of a gold hero appearing. Your 1% is a guess but you showed no research to back it. To produce that number (which could only be a better guess) you would need thousands of player data. You can't just use your own experience. And your finding on the 7th always being the most expensive is just wrong. Since you are dealing with chance there is a chance it could be the cheapest if you get it on first try, again, when dealing with random chance, there is always a chance something will be amazing or terrible for you. Your theory on this doesn't even support why the seventh would cost the most. It makes it appear as though your seventh and all others would cost the same and the more you spend the closer you are to getting that next hero. There are a lot of great post that have some data backing them. They even explain why people do skip heroes. Not trying to be a downer, but people that don't have any understanding of stat might mistake these claim as viable.
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Post time 22-3-2012 14:25:13 |Show all posts
i got 7th using 1000 and then i think 10k+(for a few months) and  still not getting 8th.

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Post time 23-3-2012 04:33:04 |Show all posts
Der Tan replied at 23-3-2012 05:25
i got 7th using 1000 and then i think 10k+(for a few months) and  still not getting 8th.

If my guess on the required gold need is correct, 8th onwards should be about

100+200+400+800+1600+3200+6400 = 12700 gold required on average. The reason why your 7th is much cheaper is probably the amount of gold spent on earlier heroes exceeded their required amount of gold.

1st 150g
2nd 300g
3rd 500g
4th 1000g
5th 2000g
6th 4000g

Total gold spent = 7950 gold spent
Required on average for 6th = 6300 gold spent
Extra spent = 1650 gold

Your 7th cost only 1000 gold + 1650 gold = 2650 gold
Remember you have a 1% chance for every 64 gold spent for 7th onwards.

Getting your 8th will by my guess be first you need to pay off for the cheap 7th.
(12700 - 2650 = 10050 gold)

And THEN you will enjoy a 1% chance for every 64 gold spent searching for your 8th.
It should explain the flux between very cheap and extremely expensive gold heroes  after your 7th.

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Post time 23-3-2012 04:51:41 |Show all posts
Alexandra replied at 21-3-2012 01:00
Hmm, I don't quite get it.

Say I've spent 0 gold so far. If I click the 1 gold button in tavern, I ...

Nope, every 1g click is 1% chance, but my estimate is you are guaranteed a gold hero on your 299th 1g click. (1st+2nd = 100g+200g = 300g). So you are guaranteed one before the next gold hero average required gold spent.

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Post time 23-3-2012 05:16:24 |Show all posts
infamousphelps replied at 22-3-2012 19:29
you've forgotten the number one rule of statics

Statistics have no memory!

Yep, statistics have no memory and like you said certain variables only Koram will know. What we can do is estimate what those numbers are.

Just talked to someone in s38. 20k gold spent for 5th after skipping 3 GH. Skipping WY, ZZ and ZL.

So an 8th will cost based on ESTIMATE to be 1% chance in every 64 gold spent AFTER 12700 gold spent. 20k total spent would be within the estimate.

Ofcourse, if someone would provide more information on their gold spending, we can further make better estimates on what Koram's upper and lower tier values are.

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Post time 23-3-2012 08:52:39 |Show all posts
this is my spendings that got my 7 gh.

first 3=1000
4th=750(estimated)
5th=1000(estimated)
6th=4500(this is the part where i hate it)
7th=1000(plus 500 for title)
Total(plus 10k+ gold spent for nothing)= 18250

so that means i could get a gh within nxt 2000 gold then?

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Post time 24-3-2012 22:20:05 |Show all posts
Der Tan replied at 23-3-2012 23:52
this is my spendings that got my 7 gh.

first 3=1000

Gold spent on titles and gold spent on nothing does not count in your gold spent at tavern.

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Post time 24-3-2012 22:39:56 |Show all posts
Lets get back to your numbers Der Tan.

On average TOTAL gold spent for GH estimates.

100 = 1st (1g to 299g)
300 = 2nd (101 g to 699g)
700 = 3rd (301 g to 1499g)
1500 = 4th (701 g to 3099g)
3100 = 5th (1501 g to 6299g)
6300 = 6th (3101 g to 12699g)
12700 = 7th (6301g to 19099g)
19100 = 8th (12701g to 25499g)
25500 = 9th (19101g to 31899g)
31900 = 10th (+/- 6400g for every next GH on average after 7th)

So for your first 3 which is 1000 g is within the estimate
So for your first 4 which is 1750 g is within the estimate
So for your first 5 which is 2750 g is within the estimate
So for your first 6 which is 7250 g is within the estimate
So for your first 7 which is 8250 g is within the estimate

And trying to get an 8th you have spent 18250g where u r feeling terrible

On average, you should get your 8th gold hero after spending 12701g onwards. (1% chance for every 64g spent). So if my estimates are correct, your 8th hero range should be spending within 12701g and 25499g. (+/- 6400g from average)

So you can see from the trend, it would seem that the server WILL remember your total spending on gold heroes and will make you pay more for your next gold hero if you didnt pay enough for the previous ones. It also explains why koram haven't been plagued with complaints about spending 12800g and not receive any gold hero.

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Post time 24-3-2012 23:19:44 |Show all posts
We need more data guys !!!

Can someone confirm they can get 2 GH by feasting 2 times? (100g spent when the minimum estimated is 101g)

Can someone confirm they used 3 GALAS before spending any gold and did not get 3 GH?

We need more numbers to improve on these estimates.

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Post time 25-3-2012 08:34:55 |Show all posts
Gold spent on titles and gold spent on nothing does not count in your gold spent at tavern.


those 10k+ was spent on tavern....

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Post time 25-3-2012 21:11:42 |Show all posts
Der Tan replied at 25-3-2012 23:34
Gold spent on titles and gold spent on nothing does not count in your gold spent at tavern.

Yep, noticed that. Thats why total spending estimated to be 8250+10000 = 18250. Any luck yet?

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Post time 27-3-2012 07:29:21 |Show all posts
nope, not spending atm.  

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Post time 28-3-2012 00:16:47 |Show all posts
Mine:
First 4 - 2k
5th - 1.5k
6th - 2k
7th - 4k
8th - 7k
9th - 12k
10th - 6k
11th - 6k.

Few of the guys I've seen have gotten their first GH on their 1gold click, and their 2nd on the 50g click. Also, Icy has never spent more than 6k gold on a GH with his 1-1-1-1-1-50 method - and he has about 15 GHes.

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Post time 28-3-2012 00:47:55 |Show all posts
This kills me a little.
1-5 - under 2k
6- 1k
7- 800 gold
8-9 - 1-1.5k
10-11- 2-2.5k
12- Lubu - 990 gold
13-16 - 2k -3k each

Getting heroes isn't based on amount spent, It's just how lucky you are at the time you hit the spend option

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Post time 28-3-2012 01:20:12 |Show all posts
how about dismiss an existing gold hero ? Does that count as, less one Gold Hero ?
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Post time 28-3-2012 01:38:31 |Show all posts
Captain_S38 replied at 28-3-2012 16:20
how about dismiss an existing gold hero ? Does that count as, less one Gold Hero ?

I dont think so. Need more input on this matter though since some say dismissing or skipping does make it easier to get the next GH.

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